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ABSTRACT. Transportation is a strategic activity in the forestry sector, primarily due to its high impact on timber production costs. In Brazil, this activity, along with timber harvesting, represents a significant portion of the wood production cost delivered to the mill. This study aimed to evaluate the production cost of road forest transportation based on operating distance (forest-to-mill), as well as to define the maximum radius to ensure the economic viability of the transport company. Risk modeling was applied for the economic management of the transport activity, considering transport distance, depreciation, fuel, maintenance, and labor costs as input variables. The triangular distribution was used for economic risk modeling, given its wide application in agricultural science research. A ±10% variation was applied to the input variables for the risk simulation, which was based on the Monte Carlo technique. The average production cost of forest transportation (USD.m³) was adopted as the output variable. Risk was identified when the production cost exceeded the rate paid per tonne transported. The research was conducted at a timber transport company located in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. According to the operating conditions and the freight rate paid, the maximum transport radius (round trip) was 149 kilometers, which is very close to the company's actual operating conditions (138 kilometers), indicating that the evaluated company operates with low profit margins. Despite the low project attractiveness, the assessed risk for the transport company remained below 10%. The regression coefficients were significant and directly related to the production cost. The sensitivity analysis allowed for the economic planning of the transport activity, indicating the threshold values for the transport company’s economic sustainability.
| Keywords | Economy; wood; truck; risco |
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