Speaker
Description
Maintaining the competitiveness of the forest sector requires a holistic understanding of interactions across the forest-to-value chain, particularly within harvesting and transport operations where inefficiencies can propagate system-wide effects. This work presents a conceptual framework based on systems dynamics and systems-based thinking to investigate structural behaviour, feedback mechanisms, and bottlenecks in forest value chains. The approach integrates causal loop diagrams, stock-and-flow modelling, and scenario simulation to represent nonlinear relationships among forest resources, harvesting capacity, logistics performance, operational costs, and supply reliability.
The proposed framework is designed to be combined with artificial intelligence and optimization methods, enabling data-driven parameterization, predictive analysis, and evaluation of alternative decision strategies. Machine learning techniques support estimation of uncertain variables and forecasting of system responses, while optimization models assess harvesting allocation, fleet deployment, and transport planning under operational constraints.
Preliminary results from case studies in Australia illustrate the applicability of the framework and demonstrate its potential to identify leverage points, inefficiencies, and unintended consequences within forest operations. These early findings highlight how integrated systems modelling can provide insights not captured through conventional analytical approaches. The study positions the framework as a decision-support tool to assist industry stakeholders in diagnosing system limitations and designing interventions that improve productivity, resilience, and long-term competitiveness across the forest sector.
| Keywords | Systems dynamics; value chains |
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